13M Farmers Battle Sea Rise with New Global Model
Researchers from the Institute for Environmental Sciences (IVM) at Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam have unveiled DYNAMO-M, a groundbreaking global agent-based model that projects how farmers across the world’s coasts may respond to the growing threat of coastal flooding and salt intrusion due to sea level rise (SLR). The model, which will be presented at the EGU General Assembly 2025 in Vienna, offers new insights into the challenges faced by 13 million farming households globally.
Using decision-making logic rooted in discounted expected utility (DEU) theory, DYNAMO-M doesn’t just forecast physical impacts — it simulates real human choices: stay and absorb losses, adapt with salt-tolerant crops and elevated homes, or migrate inland. These decisions play out year by year, crop by crop, from 2020 through 2080, covering 23 major food crops in flood-prone areas worldwide. “Rising seas are forcing a decision: stay, adapt, or migrate,” says lead researcher Kushagra Pandey.
The stakes are enormous. Rising salinity and floodwaters are already slashing crop yields and farming income. DYNAMO-M identifies hotspots of future migration, with vulnerable coastal regions in Florida, New York, Oregon, Japan, China, the Philippines, and Italy likely to see major shifts in population and land use. Notably, the model also highlights areas within 1 in 100 year floodplains, which are at particular risk.
But it’s not all doom and displacement. The team also tested insurance schemes and government support policies in the model, revealing that smart interventions could significantly reduce the pressure to migrate and help communities stay and thrive despite the rising tides. “Small subsidies can significantly enhance adaptive capacity and reduce migration driven by sea-level rise,” continues Kushagra Pandey.
The findings push the frontier of climate risk modelling and offer actionable insights for governments, insurers, and global development agencies grappling with how to support frontline farming communities in a warming world. DYNAMO-M could be the missing link in understanding one of the most urgent and complex questions of our time: what happens when our farmlands flood — and the farmers have to choose what to do next.
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10487