Climate Policy Messaging Key in Upcoming Election
Prime Minister Mark Carney has called an April 28 federal election, setting the stage for a campaign where climate policy could be a central issue.
The current iteration of Canada’s consumer carbon rebate is dead – which many view as a casualty of effective communication – yet climate policy remains a pressing topic for voters and a major battleground for political leaders.
As Canada grapples with intensifying climate-related challenges , the next government will not only need to implement evidence-based policies to meet international climate commitments , but also effectively communicate its vision to voters.
The public remains concerned about environmental issues , yet many are worried that bold climate policies have damaged the economy. This tension between environmental responsibility and economic growth will shape how each party formulates and communicates their climate policies in the upcoming campaign.
For Carney and the Liberal Party, the challenge is twofold. First, the Liberals must present a new climate plan after the collapse of the consumer carbon rebate, which has faced widespread public opposition in recent years .
While the new Liberal leader has already terminated the the carbon rebate , it still remains unclear what exactly his comprehensive climate plan will look like. Carney’s website states that his strategy will: “Provide incentives for consumers. Put more of the burden on big polluters. And help us build the strongest economy in the G7.”
This suggests his climate policy will hinge more on positive incentives for consumers to invest in sustainable approaches rather than putting a cost on polluting.
While the carbon rebate initially enjoyed broad support as a key tool for reducing emissions, it has become a lightning rod for political controversy .
Climate change is no longer just an environmental issue; it’s increasingly seen as a matter of economic survival, with green energy jobs and clean technologies representing an opportunity for Canada to position itself as a global leader in the sector.
Carney will have to make a convincing case that his policy will create jobs, stimulate innovation and provide a clear path toward a greener, more sustainable economy.
Failing to do so could lead to the loss of centrist and moderate voters, some of whom are wary of the perceived economic risks of aggressive climate action .
On the opposite end of the political spectrum, federal Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has made axing the carbon rebate a central part of his platform.
Framing the carbon rebate as an economic penalty, Poilievre has played into populist sentiments by promising to “axe the tax” and relieve financial pressures on Canadian families and businesses.
However, even if the Conservatives are successful in eliminating the carbon rebate, they still face the challenge of needing a comprehensive climate policy that lowers emissions and meets Canada’s Paris Agreement targets . Poilievre has said he would not withdraw Canada from the accord , but he hasn’t addressed how he would meet Canada’s commitments.
Poilievre’s populist rhetoric may resonate with voters who feel economically squeezed, but it’s unlikely to be enough to win over voters concerned about the climate crisis – especially as he has voted against environmental and climate action in Parliament over 400 times in his career , a point his opponents will be sure to raise repeatedly.
For the Conservatives, the real challenge will be how to present a climate policy that appeals to both economic conservatives , who prioritize fiscal responsibility, and environmental conservatives, who are concerned about the future of the planet.
Poilievre will need to clearly articulate how his policies will preserve Canada’s environmental future without stifling economic growth or inflating costs for the average Canadian.
A key piece of the future of climate policy in Canada will be the NDP and Green Party, who are generally considered left-of-centre parties alongside the governing Liberals.
The NDP, which can siphon progressive votes away from the Liberals – which sometimes benefits Conservatives – have been clear as mud when it comes to their climate policy for the next election.
NDP leader Jagmeet Singh rescinded his party’s long-standing support for the Liberal carbon rebate in April 2024 , but has not yet said what his party would put in its place.
Meanwhile, the Green Party, which has historically played a less significant role in electoral outcomes in terms of vote splitting, has generally maintained its support for the carbon rebate. Its website suggests the party supports the polluter-pays principle . However, the Greens have yet to take a clear stance on the shifting climate grounds on which this election could partially be fought.
In the coming years, the future of climate policy in Canada will be less about crafting the perfect policy and more about crafting a message that addresses how people are feeling.
The Liberal Party has been open about the demise of the carbon rebate being a combination of a lack of their own effective communication strategy, mixed with harmful disinformation campaigns that led to the demise of their signature climate policy.
For the Liberals, Conservatives, NDP and Greens alike, the road to effective climate policy will lie in this communication. Political leaders will need to balance ambition and pragmatism, ensuring their policies align with Canadians’ economic interests.
With 71 per cent of Canadians suggesting they want the next government to do more to address climate change, leaders who can articulate a vision for a sustainable, prosperous future while addressing the immediate concerns of Canadians will be the ones who have the best chance of winning the public’s trust – and the next election.
Andrew Heffernan is affiliated with the Liberal Party of Canada.