Estimated Resident Population: At 30 June 2023
These are the latest estimates of people who usually live in New Zealand based on the 2023 Census and 2023 Post-enumeration Survey (PES) and adjusted for net census undercount, residents temporarily overseas, and population change due to births, deaths, and migration, between census night (7 March 2023) and the mid-year reference date (30 June 2023).
This is the first release of the population estimates based on the 2023 Census and 2023 Post-enumeration Survey (PES). All population estimates after 30 June 2018 have been revised. All national estimates from 30 June 2018 to 30 June 2023, and subnational estimates from 30 June 2018 to 30 June 2023 are now final.
At 30 June 2023:
Between 30 June 2018 and 30 June 2023:
All population estimates at 30 June 2023 and beyond use the 2023-base ERP. Estimates after 30 June 2023 are still provisional and subject to revision, mainly to incorporate revisions to migration estimates.
The 2023-base ERP at 30 June 2023 (5,200,000) was derived from the 2023 census usually resident population count at 7 March 2023 (4,993,923), adjusted for:
Methodology for the 2023-base population has more information on how the new base population is calculated.
The latest available estimate of New Zealand’s resident population is 5,311,100 at 31 December 2024.
In the December 2024 year, the population grew by 47,800 people, or 0.9 percent. Net migration contributed 27,100 to this growth, and natural increase contributed 20,700.
The New Zealand ERP at 30 June 2024 was 5,287,500. This is the latest available June ERP, comparable with the latest available subnational population estimates and national Māori ethnic population estimates, which have 30 June 2024 as a reference date.
The North Island’s resident population was estimated to have reached 4 million in late 2023, and at 30 June 2024 was at 4,044,600.
It took just over two decades for the North Island’s population to increase from 3 million in late 2002 to 4 million in late 2023. Over the same period, the South Island’s population increased by nearly 300,000, and at 30 June 2024 was at 1,242,300.
Ethnic population estimates are derived from census data on the question, “Which ethnic group do you belong to? Mark the space or spaces which apply to you”. People can, and do, identify with more than one ethnic group, which means the sum of ethnic group estimates will be greater than the total New Zealand estimated resident population. People who identify with more than one ethnicity are included in each ethnic group they identified with.
The following level 1 ethnic group populations increased between 30 June 2018 and 30 June 2023:
While all of these broad ethnic group populations increased in size, the faster growth of the Māori, Pacific, Asian, and MELAA populations meant that these groups increased their share of New Zealand’s population:
Despite increasing in population size, the share of the New Zealand population identifying with a ‘European or Other (including New Zealander)’ ethnicity dropped from 70.2 percent in 2018, to 67.2 in 2023.
Census counts remain the best data source for detailed ethnicity data and analysis across a range of census variables. For more information on detailed ethnicity data, see Making community data more accessible for all of Aotearoa New Zealand.
However, the ethnic population estimates are the best-available measure of the size, age-sex structure, and geographic location of these five broad ethnic groups. The adjustments applied to the census counts to derive each ethnic ERP reflect differences by ethnicity, age, sex, and geographic location.
Ethnic population estimates are currently produced only for these broad ethnic groups and only in census years, except for national Māori ethnic population estimates, which are published twice a year (as at 30 June, published in November, and mean year ended December, published in May). The latest Māori ethnic population estimate was 923,100 at 30 June 2024.
The limited availability of population estimates for all broad ethnic groups reflects the challenges in estimating ethnic group population change, which includes estimating net migration and inter-ethnic mobility (people changing ethnic identification). Often, assumptions need to be made about these components of change, which means the estimates can be similar to ethnic population projections, which are regularly published.
Population estimates and projections has links to the latest projections releases.
Māori descent population estimates are derived from census data on the question “Are you descended from Māori (that is, did you have a Māori birth parent, grandparent, or great-grandparent, etc)”. Māori descent is based on whakapapa, while affiliation to the Māori ethnic group is a self-determined cultural affiliation.
Māori descent population estimates (1,035,900 at 30 June 2023) are higher than the corresponding Māori ethnic population estimates (911,200). In the 2023 Census, nearly all (97 percent) people identifying with Māori ethnicity also identified as being of Māori descent, while a smaller proportion (88 percent) of people identifying as being of Māori descent also identified with Māori ethnicity.
These Māori descent population estimates are used for local government electoral purposes but are not used for general electoral purposes (for example, determining the number of general electorates). Under the Electoral Act 1993, census counts are used to calculate electoral populations and electoral boundaries.
The mathematics of electorate allocation in New Zealand based on the outcome of the 2023 Census and Māori Electoral Option has more information.
By comparing the 2023-base ERP and the 2018-base ERP at 30 June 2023, we can assess the effect of the new base and reflect on the accuracy of the intercensal estimates.
Intercensal discrepancy is the difference between population estimates produced before the census and population estimates rebased after the census. It is a measure of the accuracy of population estimates, and is the net combined effect of various factors including inaccuracies in:
The intercensal discrepancy is not attributable to a single data source. Some intercensal discrepancy will arise because of how people self-identify in the census compared with how they are identified elsewhere (for example, in international migration data).
The population estimates are the first to fully incorporate the 2023 Census and 2023 Post-enumeration Survey (PES) results. The census is used to recalibrate national and subnational population estimates, ensuring the population estimates are the best-possible measure of the population usually living in New Zealand.
This is a normal revision of population estimates that takes place after census and PES results are available. Estimates back to 2018 have now been revised. The intercensal revised estimates are a weighted average of the 2018-base and 2023-base estimates (derived forwards and backwards, respectively, from the ERP and its components of change). Estimates after 30 June 2023 now use the 2023-base estimated resident population as the starting point.
New Zealand’s resident population based on the 2023 Census is estimated to be 5,200,000 at 30 June 2023. This is 45,000 (0.9 percent) lower than the previous estimate at that date using the 2018-base ERP. This indicates that the annual population change between the 2023-base and the 2018-base populations was 8,900 lower than that implied by natural increase and net migration.
The average annual difference of -8,900 a year between 2018 and 2023 is compared with an annual intercensal discrepancy of:
Māori ethnic population estimates using the 2023-base have been revised upwards by 0.9 percent (or by 7,700 people) at June 2023 compared with the same date on the 2018-base. The revised Māori ethnic population estimates show that at 30 June 2023, there were 911,200 people identifying with Māori ethnicity living in New Zealand. The latest Māori ethnic population estimate at 30 June 2024 is 923,100 people.
Intercensal discrepancy (the difference between population estimates produced before and after rebasing) is a measure of the accuracy of population estimates. As with the total population, intercensal discrepancy for Māori ethnic population estimates is the net combined effect of factors around census counts and derivation adjustments at the beginning and end of the period, and components of population change . In addition, intercensal discrepancy in the Māori ethnic population estimates can come from inaccuracies in the allowances for ethnic non-response (for example, in birth and death registrations) and for changes in ethnic identification (inter-ethnic mobility).
National population estimates from 30 September 2018 to 31 December 2024 have been revised down.
The population at 30 June 2023 was revised down by 45,000 people, or 0.9 percent. Across age-sex groups, revisions were mainly downwards. The estimated male population was revised down by 20,400, and the female population by 24,200 at 30 June 2023.
The revised estimates confirm that most age groups have experienced population growth since 2018. Within the broad age groups, those aged 15 to 39 experienced some of the largest population growth between 30 June 2018 and 30 June 2024, up 145,400 (or an average of 1.4 percent a year). Net migration was a major contributor to growth at these ages. The population aged 65+ years grew faster, however, increasing by an average of 2.9 percent a year (with an increase of 139,000 people).
Subnational population estimates at 30 June for 2019 to 2024 have been revised, mainly downwards. Among regions, the revisions at 30 June 2023 ranged from a 0.1 percent revision (1,500 people) upwards for Auckland, to a 2.3 percent revision (4,100 people) downwards for Hawke’s Bay.
Among territorial authority and Auckland local board areas, the largest revisions at 30 June 2023 ranged from a 3.7 percent revision (2,900 people) upwards for Upper Harbour local board area, to a 5.1 percent revision (290 people) downwards for Mackenzie district and a 15.8 percent revision (110 people) downwards for Chatham Islands territory.
The revised population estimates confirm that all 16 regions and 84 of 88 territorial authority areas and Auckland local board areas (TALBs) experienced population growth between 2018 and 2024. The four TALBs that experienced population loss were Ōrākei local board area and Wellington city (both decreasing by an average of 0.1 percent a year), Albert-Eden local board area (0.2 percent decrease), and Chatham Islands territory (1.9 percent decrease).
The 2023 Census was the first New Zealand census to collect data on gender. Gender refers to a person’s social and personal identity, such as male, female, or another gender or genders that may be non-binary. Gender has three output categories: male, female, and another gender.
Gender, sex, and LGBTIQ+ concepts in the 2023 Census has more information.
Previous censuses have collected data on sex, which had two output categories: male and female. Sex refers to a person’s sex characteristics, such as their chromosomes, hormones, and reproductive organs. A person’s sex can change over the course of their lifetime and may differ from their sex recorded at birth.
Census data is one of several data sources used to calculate population estimates. The preliminary ERP at census date mainly uses census data, along with the number of residents temporarily overseas. The Post-enumeration Survey, which measures census coverage and is used in calculating the ERP, also collected data on gender. There is sufficient gender information in this data to publish the preliminary ERP at census date broken down by gender at the national level.
When calculating the ERP at 30 June 2023, additional data sources for estimating births, deaths, internal migration, and international migration are used. These do not consistently measure gender and are generally still based on sex, or a mixed concept of sex and gender. International migration, for example, is dependent on how gender or sex is identified in passports from different countries.
As a result of not being able to consistently collect sufficient data on gender across the components that make up population change, the ERP at 30 June 2023 continues to be based on sex, with no gender breakdowns available.
Post-censal population estimates (and projections) convey how the population is changing over time, whether by age, ethnicity, sex, or gender. There is currently limited information on how an individual’s gender may change over their lifetime (what might be termed ‘inter-gender mobility’), or whether patterns seen in the 2023 Census will change over time. For example, 60 percent of the population aged 15+ years who had another gender were aged 15 to 29 years (2023 Census). More data over time is needed to observe the trends in gender identification, such as whether the higher proportion of young people having another gender continues and/or whether this higher proportion continues as the cohort ages.
Until inter-gender mobility is better understood, and component data by gender is collected across the statistical system or can be estimated, population estimates (and projections) will continue to be based on sex. This means that demographic indices calculated from population estimates (for example, fertility rates and mortality rates, including those in life tables) will also continue to be based on sex.
The preliminary estimated resident population at census night (7 March 2023) was 5,149,700 people. It is ‘preliminary’ because it hasn’t yet gone through the demographic changes between census night and 30 June and the demographic reconciliation at 30 June to derive the final ERP.
The ERP at census night includes residents in New Zealand counted by census, residents temporarily overseas on census night, and residents missed by the census (estimated by the Post-enumeration Survey).
Of the ERP at census night by gender:
Over half (52 percent) of people who had another gender were aged 15 to 29 years. Further age breakdowns of the ERP at census night by gender are available under Download data.
Use Infoshare to access time-series data for this release.
Quarterly national population estimates by age and sex, 1991-2024
Subject category: Population, Group: Population estimates
Annual national estimates of the Māori ethnic group resident population
These are available from June 1991 to June 2024, as a guide for research and analytical purposes, including for use as population denominators, for example, for Māori birth and death rates: Subject category: Population, Group: Population estimates
Aotearoa Data Explorer can be used to view and download tables using the 2023-base estimated resident population, including the ones listed here. They are available under the Society tab, and under Population Estimates.
Estimated resident population (ERP), national population by ethnic group, age, and sex, 30 June 1996, 2001, 2006, 2013, 2018, and 2023
Estimated resident population (ERP), subnational population by ethnic group, age, and sex, at 30 June 1996, 2001, 2006, 2013, 2018, and 2023
Estimated resident population (ERP), adjustments to derive ERP at 30 June 2023 (from census usually resident population)
Estimated components of subnational intercensal population change (RC, TA), 1981-2023
Estimated Māori descent resident population, at 30 June 2001, 2006, 2013, 2018, and 2023
The Population clock gives a real time indication of New Zealand’s population after the release of official population estimates each quarter. The clock has now been recalibrated to incorporate the 2023-base estimated resident population and revisions to post-2023 population estimates.
The 2023-base ERP at 30 June 2023 (5,200,000) was derived from the 2023 census usually resident population count at 7 March 2023 (4,993,923) adjusted for:
The last adjustment – a demographic reconciliation – uses the highest-quality births, deaths, and external migration data available at the national level to estimate the population at the youngest ages independent of census.
Estimated resident population 2023: Data sources and methods, which will be published on 30 April 2025, will have more information on the methods used to derive the 2023-base ERP. This methodology paper will also discuss the sources of uncertainty in the ERP and present estimates of uncertainty in the 2023-base ERP.
Uncertainty is inherent in the estimation process used to produce the population estimates because no one data source accurately measures all population change from year to year. Uncertainty generally increases the further the population estimates are from their census-base starting point, and as they are broken down by age, sex, ethnic group, and geographic area.
Administrative data has always been used to derive population estimates, and this use has been extended to improve the accuracy of the 2023-base ERP. The 2023 Census used data from alternative sources to supplement the data from census forms. This included linked administrative data and 2018 Census data, compiled by Stats NZ’s Integrated Data Infrastructure (IDI). Where high-quality alternatives were available, these provided real information about people, albeit collected at a different time or in a different context from the 2023 Census.
The ERP at 30 June 2023 is the base for estimates labelled ‘2023-base’. Similarly, estimates labelled ‘2018-base’ are based on the ERP at 30 June 2018.
Previously published population estimates used the 2018-base ERP (based on the 2018 Census) as their starting point. After a census, we update the ERP to account for the latest information about the population. This is known as rebasing.
As a result, and to provide a consistent time series, we have revised:
National population estimates – DataInfo+ gives general methodology used to produce national population estimates, and related metadata.
Subnational population estimates – DataInfo+ gives general methodology used to produce subnational population estimates, and related metadata.
The ERP includes all people living in New Zealand, including those residents temporarily overseas (that is, overseas for less than 12 months). The ERP excludes visitors to New Zealand (that is, people in New Zealand for less than 12 months).
The ERP is based on census counts from the periodic Census of Population and Dwellings. However, the ERP is generally higher than the census counts because of adjustments made for people not counted by the census.
Text alternative for diagram Conceptual inclusions in key population statistics produced by Stats NZ
The starting point for the ERP is the census usually resident population count, and where someone lives is essentially self-identified. The base ERP is subsequently updated for births, deaths, and net migration (migrant arrivals minus migrant departures).
‘Migrant arrivals’ are overseas residents, including New Zealand citizens living overseas, who cumulatively spend 12 of the next 16 months in New Zealand after arriving.
‘Migrant departures’ are New Zealand residents, including non-New Zealand citizens living in New Zealand, who cumulatively spend 12 of the next 16 months out of New Zealand after departing.
Migrant arrivals and departures include the flows of New Zealand citizens as well as the flows of non-New Zealand citizens as both affect the population living in New Zealand.
Text alternative for diagram Conceptual inclusions in key population statistics produced by Stats NZ
Diagram contrasts the common population measures published by Stats NZ. The ‘census night population count’ is the census count of residents in New Zealand on census night, plus the census count of overseas visitors in New Zealand on census night. The ‘census usually resident population count’ is the census count of residents in New Zealand on census night. The ‘estimated resident population’ includes the census count of residents in New Zealand on census night; plus net census undercount as estimated by the census post-enumeration survey; plus residents temporarily overseas on census night as estimated using other data sources; plus births, deaths, and net migration since census night as estimated using other data sources. The ‘projected resident population’ includes population counted in the ‘estimated resident population’ plus assumptions about future birth rates, death rates, and net migration to give an indication of future populations.
Kim Dunstan
03 964 8330
[email protected]
ISBN 978-1-991307-59-0
National population estimates: At 31 March 2025 will be released on 15 May 2025.
Māori population estimates: Mean year ended 31 December 2024 will be released on 16 May 2025.
National population projections: 2024(base)-2078 will be released on 4 June 2025.