Uranium Abundant, But Investment Key for Nuclear Growth
Sufficient uranium resources exist to support both the continued use of nuclear power and its significant growth through 2050 and beyond. However, timely investments in new exploration, mining operations and processing techniques will be essential to ensure that uranium becomes available to the market when needed.
These are among the main findings of the latest edition of Uranium – Resources, Production and Demand 2024, commonly known as the “Red Book”, an essential global reference prepared jointly every two years by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
The 2024 edition of the Red Book provides the latest comprehensive review of uranium market fundamentals, based on official government data, and delivers a detailed statistical profile of the global uranium industry. Covering the calendar years 2021 and 2022, it features data on uranium exploration, resources, and production . The report also includes 62 country profiles, offering in-depth insights into mine development plans, the environmental and social dimensions of uranium mining, and national regulations and policies.
The Red Book indicates that global identified recoverable uranium resources amounted to 7 934 500 tonnes as of 1 January 2023. These represent all reasonably assured and inferred uranium resources that could be recovered at market prices ranging from $40 to $260 USD/KgU (equivalent to $15 to $100 USD/lb U3O8). Compared to the total reported in the 2022 edition, this represents an increase of less than 0.5%. Additions to the uranium resource base could however arise from undiscovered or unconventional sources, driven by the sharp rise in uranium spot prices since mid-2021 and the commitment first announced during COP28 and now signed by 31 countries to triple their nuclear energy capacity by 2050.
Worldwide domestic exploration and mine development expenditures have increased dramatically after a period of decline due to poor market conditions and the COVID-19 pandemic. Annual expenditures reached USD 800 million in 2022 and preliminary data for 2023 suggest a further increase to USD 840 million.
The Red Book also provides projections for nuclear power installed capacity and uranium requirements through 2050, outlining both low-growth and high-growth scenarios, alongside an assessment of uranium supply and demand adequacy under each scenario. According to these projections, the uranium resource base is sufficient to meet the needs of a high-growth nuclear capacity through 2050 and beyond. However, this will require essential investments in new exploration, improved processing techniques and new production centres to replenish reserves.
Production increased 4% between 2020 and 2022 and the report suggests the increase will likely continue in coming years. The establishment of new production centres is anticipated to encounter significant lead times due to today’s risk-averse investment climate, and complex and lengthy regulatory processes in many uranium mining jurisdictions. Geopolitical challenges and technical difficulties related to developing new mines and milling facilities may further compound the situation. As a result, efforts must begin immediately to ensure adequate uranium supplies are available in the medium term.
https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/pressreleases/sufficient-uranium-resources-exist-however-investments-needed-to-susta-in-high-nuclear-energy-growth